{"source":"voxodds.com","updated_at":"2026-09-25T21:09:27.427892+00:00","summary":"Live research workflow combining active theses, market demand, watched setups, alert events, and paper-tracker entry points.","stats":{"total":21,"active":21,"research_watch":21,"tradable_now":0,"watchers_sample":2,"watched_insights":1,"research_queue_sample":4,"market_demand_score_sample":4},"active_insights":[{"id":"hormuz-traffic-normal-may15","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","category":"Geopolitics","market_id":"2176270","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","status":"Research watch","stance":"Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.","side":"YES","yes_price":0.275,"no_price":0.725,"yes_pct":27.5,"no_pct":72.5,"volume_24h":178597.69,"volume_total":12990206.54,"liquidity":358560.3,"end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","execution":{"label":"Cleaner","score":70.7,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","days_left":97},"tracker":{"label":"Research tracker","published_at":"2026-05-02T00:00:00Z","reference_side":"YES","reference_pct":14.5,"current_pct":27.5,"move_pp":13.0,"move_label":"Up","state":"Evidence required","tone":"yellow","next_action":"Do not chase the move unless PortWatch/AIS data already confirms broad commercial recovery.","thesis_score":35,"thesis_score_label":"Low until PortWatch improves","alert_thresholds":["YES below 10%: cheap optionality, still evidence-gated.","YES 10%-25%: watch zone; 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Current market pricing is roughly YES 86.9% / NO 13.2% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"momentum_watch","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":32.6,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{},"confidence":71.0},"market_url":"/market/4339036","execution":{"score":60.9,"days_left":112,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["YES moved +32.6pp across 36 recent snapshots","Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex."],"volume_24h":344103.43,"yes_price":0.8685,"category":"Prediction markets","title":"LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?","seo_slug":"laptop-fdv-above-250m-one-day-after-launch","generated_from_edge_id":"momentum:4339036","odds_url":"/odds/laptop-fdv-above-250m-one-day-after-launch","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. 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Always check resolution criteria before sizing."],"links":{"html":"https://voxodds.com/research-desk","investment_insights":"https://voxodds.com/investment-insights","paper_trades":"https://voxodds.com/paper-trades","edge":"https://voxodds.com/edge"}}