Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by t...

Vol 24h: $6.0M Total: $7.8M Liq: $620.4K Ends: 2026-04-15 Trade on Polymarket →
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News Impact

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Mediators move closer to extending US-Iran ceasefire, officials tell AP - AP News

Progress in US-Iran diplomatic relations typically reduces regional tensions and can lead to Iran pressuring Hezbollah toward a ceasefire.

5/10
Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow futures hit pause near records amid hopes for US-Iran talks - Yahoo Finance

Market optimism regarding US-Iran talks reflects a broader expectation of regional de-escalation which favors a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire.

3/10
Israel-Lebanon talks unlikely to yield much until Iran undergoes fundamental change - The Times of Israel

The assertion that a ceasefire depends on fundamental change in Iran suggests a high barrier to success, as such political shifts are unlikely within the 2026 timeframe.

7/10

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