World Cup 2026 Odds — Live Prediction Market Prices

Who wins the World Cup? What real money says — not what a bookmaker quotes. Live prices on the winner, all 12 groups, knockout props and every match, June 11 – July 19.

$$2236.7M traded on World Cup markets • Updated every 10 minutes from Polymarket

⚽ Get the odds shift after every matchday

Which favorites are fading, which longshots the smart money is buying, and where markets disagree with sportsbooks. Free during the tournament.

Live World Cup brief for agents, blogs and newsletters

A citeable snapshot of the winner board, next match prices, tight groups and Research Desk theses. Available as HTML, Markdown, JSON, embed and MCP.

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🏆 Tournament Winner

Trade on Polymarket
Spain
16.8%
France
16.1%
Portugal
10.5%
England
9.7%
Brazil
8.3%
Argentina
7.8%
Germany
5.1%
Netherlands
4.9%
Norway
2.5%
Belgium
2.1%
USA
1.9%
Japan
1.9%
Colombia
1.7%
Morocco
1.5%

Implied probability from live contract prices. No bookmaker margin — what traders actually pay.

📅 Next Matches — 1 / X / 2

2026-06-13
Brazil vs. Morocco
58.5%
Brazil
25.5%
Draw
16.5%
Morocco
2026-06-13
Haiti vs. Scotland
16.5%
Haiti
21.5%
Draw
63.5%
Scotland
2026-06-13
Qatar vs. Switzerland
6.2%
Qatar
13.5%
Draw
81.5%
Switzerland
2026-06-14
Australia vs. Türkiye
17.5%
Australia
25.5%
Draw
57.5%
Türkiye
2026-06-14
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador
26.5%
Côte d'Ivoire
33.5%
Draw
40.5%
Ecuador
2026-06-14
Germany vs. Curaçao
94.0%
Germany
4.0%
Draw
2.5%
Curaçao
2026-06-14
Netherlands vs. Japan
47.5%
Netherlands
26.5%
Draw
25.5%
Japan
2026-06-14
Sweden vs. Tunisia
50.5%
Sweden
27.5%
Draw
21.5%
Tunisia
2026-06-15
Belgium vs. Egypt
60.5%
Belgium
24.5%
Draw
16.5%
Egypt
2026-06-15
IR Iran vs. New Zealand
52.5%
IR Iran
27.5%
Draw
19.5%
New Zealand
2026-06-15
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay
11.5%
Saudi Arabia
21.5%
Draw
66.5%
Uruguay
2026-06-15
Spain vs. Cabo Verde
90.5%
Spain
6.8%
Draw
3.4%
Cabo Verde

📊 World Cup Research Theses

Where our research desk thinks the market is mispriced — with entry logic, invalidation, and live tracking.

Research watch
Argentina to Repeat as World Cup Champion — The Defending-Champion Discount
Research watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
Research YES • YES 8.6% / NO 91.5%
Research watch
Mexico to Win Group A — Host Advantage the Market May Still Underprice
Research watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
Research YES • YES 56.5% / NO 43.5%
Research watch
Spain to Win the 2026 World Cup — A Favorite at a Historic Discount
Research watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
Research YES • YES 16.2% / NO 83.8%

Group Winners — All 12 Groups

Group A
Mexico 62.5%
South Korea 33.5%
Czechia 3.4%
South Africa 0.8%
Group B
Switzerland 59.5%
Canada 26.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 12.5%
Qatar 2.2%
Group C
Brazil 71.5%
Morocco 20.5%
Scotland 8.1%
Haiti 0.8%
Group D
USA 60.5%
Türkiye 33.5%
Australia 3.8%
Paraguay 2.8%
Group E
Germany 65.0%
Ecuador 23.5%
Ivory Coast 12.5%
Curaçao 0.5%
Group F
Netherlands 53.5%
Japan 27.5%
Sweden 14.5%
Tunisia 4.2%
Group G
Belgium 69.5%
Egypt 16.5%
Iran 11.5%
New Zealand 3.0%
Group H
Spain 78.5%
Uruguay 19.5%
Saudi Arabia 1.9%
Cape Verde 1.2%
Group I
France 65.5%
Norway 24.5%
Senegal 11.5%
Iraq 0.8%
Group J
Argentina 71.5%
Austria 20.5%
Algeria 8.5%
Jordan 1.6%
Group K
Portugal 62.5%
Colombia 32.5%
Congo DR 4.0%
Uzbekistan 2.8%
Group L
England 70.5%
Croatia 23.5%
Ghana 5.3%
Panama 2.6%
Nation to reach the Round of 16
France 81.5% Spain 80.5% Portugal 78.0% England 77.5% Brazil 72.5% Argentina 71.5%
Nation to reach the Quarterfinals
Spain 63.0% France 60.5% England 57.0% Argentina 52.5% Brazil 52.5% Portugal 49.5%
Nation to reach the Semifinals
Spain 46.5% France 43.5% England 36.0% Brazil 31.5% Portugal 31.5% Argentina 31.0%
Nation to reach the Final
Spain 32.0% France 26.5% Portugal 23.0% England 22.5% Argentina 20.5% Brazil 20.0%
Which continent wins?
Europe (UEFA) 72.5% South America (CONMEBOL) 19.5% North America (CONCACAF) 3.4% Africa (CAF) 2.6% Asia (AFC) 2.3%
Golden Boot — top scorer
Kylian Mbappe 15.5% Harry Kane 13.5% Mikel Oyarzabal 9.5% Erling Haaland 8.5% Michael Olise 6.2% Lionel Messi 5.9%

Why prediction market odds beat your sportsbook

A sportsbook line includes the bookmaker's margin — typically 5-10% baked against you. Prediction market prices are set by traders on both sides of every contract, so the price is the market's true probability estimate. When a sportsbook quotes a team at +500 (16.7%) and the prediction market trades the same team at 12%, that gap is information.

During the tournament we track those gaps daily across the winner market, groups, and knockout props.

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World Cup 2026 Odds — FAQ

Who is favored to win the 2026 World Cup?

Markets currently price Spain as the favorite at 16.8%, ahead of France (16.1%) and Portugal (10.5%). With no team above 18%, this is one of the most open World Cups markets have ever priced.

What do these percentages mean?

Each percentage is the live price of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. Spain at 16.8% means traders pay $0.17 per contract — the market's real-money estimate of the probability.

How often do these odds update?

This page refreshes from Polymarket every 10 minutes. The underlying markets trade 24/7 and react to lineups, injuries, and results within seconds — usually faster than sportsbooks move their lines.

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