Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 1m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
332
Signals
51

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

neutral
Avg
+0.09pp
Hit
43.6%
Trades
445

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

neutral
Avg
-0.09pp
Hit
40.2%
Trades
445

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
+0.03pp
Hit
15.7%
Trades
1954

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

Spread: Packers (-4.5)
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 98.9

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 52% / NO 48% · vol $2.1M · liq $1.3M
Usable depth: 2068380 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 97.0

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 48% / NO 52% · vol $1.6M · liq $771k
Usable depth: 1634988 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 96.2

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $680k · liq $64k
Usable depth: 679846 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Singapore Open: Elise Mertens vs Barbora Krejcikova
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 95.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $400k · liq $290k
Usable depth: 400146 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 94.1

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 48% / NO 52% · vol $717k · liq $57k
Usable depth: 716605 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Türkiye vs. France: O/U 3.5
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 94.0

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $363k · liq $104k
Usable depth: 363390 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

Risk 73
near-resolution price close to close resolved or closed
Medium integrity risk; size down or wait for confirmation.
Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 73
near-resolution price close to close resolved or closed
Medium integrity risk; size down or wait for confirmation.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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