Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (F...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
A sudden 50+ basis point rate hike is an extreme policy action that the Federal Reserve would only implement in an unforeseen, severe inflationary emergency.
With the "No" outcome priced at 99%, capital is virtually locked up for nearly two years for a negligible sub-1% return that severely underperforms risk-free Treasury yields. Investors should avoid tying up liquidity on the heavy favorite and instead seek mispricings elsewhere, unless using a micro-allocation on "Yes" as a ultra-cheap, tail-risk hedge against an extreme re-acceleration of inflation.
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