Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Elon Musk's weekly posting volume exhibits high variance across a wide typical range (often exceeding 200+ or falling well below depending on activity), making any narrow 20-tweet interval inherently low probability.
Given Elon Musk's historical tweet volume frequently exceeding 30–50 posts per day—putting a weekly total well above 200—and the extreme difficulty of landing within a narrow 20-tweet band two years in advance, the 13% implied probability on "Yes" is significantly overpriced. Investors should take a high-confidence "No" position at 87% (or sell "Yes"), capitalizing on the deep $353k liquidity to harvest a mispriced tail-risk premium.
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