AI vs Market Scoreboard

Name: VoxOdds AI vs Market Forecast Scoreboard
Creator: VoxOdds
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Every hourly AI forecast is stored with the market price captured at the same moment, then scored when the market resolves. Append-only receipts, deterministic math, losses published. Lower Brier is better. Read the full research writeup → Submit your own forecasts →

Forecasts scored

6442

13080 awaiting resolution

AI Brier (mean)

0.182

sample: 6442

Market Brier (mean)

0.131

same timestamps

AI accuracy

74%

market: 81%

Across 6442 scored forecasts, VoxOdds AI (Brier 0.182) trailed the market price (Brier 0.131) taken at the same moment. A sweep over every AI/market mixture weight (n=6442) finds no weight of AI improves on the price — the market alone is optimal so far.

Recently scored forecasts

Market	AI said	Resolved	AI Brier	Market Brier	Verdict
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ 90%	Chicago Cubs	0.010	0.009	Market closer
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ 89%	Chicago Cubs	0.013	0.009	Market closer
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ 86%	Chicago Cubs	0.020	0.009	Market closer
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ 81%	Chicago Cubs	0.035	0.009	Market closer
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ 72%	Chicago Cubs	0.078	0.009	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group D	Betclic Apogee Esports @ 96%	Betclic Apogee Esports	0.002	0.002	AI closer
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group D	Betclic Apogee Esports @ 95%	Betclic Apogee Esports	0.002	0.002	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group D	Betclic Apogee Esports @ 95%	Betclic Apogee Esports	0.002	0.002	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group D	Betclic Apogee Esports @ 95%	Betclic Apogee Esports	0.003	0.002	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group D	Betclic Apogee Esports @ 94%	Betclic Apogee Esports	0.004	0.002	Market closer
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	Guinea Pink @ 94%	Kawaii Kiwis	0.884	0.893	AI closer
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	Guinea Pink @ 94%	Kawaii Kiwis	0.890	0.893	AI closer
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	Guinea Pink @ 94%	Kawaii Kiwis	0.886	0.893	AI closer
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	Guinea Pink @ 94%	Kawaii Kiwis	0.879	0.893	AI closer
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	Guinea Pink @ 93%	Kawaii Kiwis	0.865	0.893	AI closer
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Iberian Soul @ 96%	Iberian Soul	0.002	0.001	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Iberian Soul @ 96%	Iberian Soul	0.001	0.001	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Iberian Soul @ 96%	Iberian Soul	0.002	0.001	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Iberian Soul @ 95%	Iberian Soul	0.003	0.001	Market closer
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Iberian Soul @ 93%	Iberian Soul	0.005	0.001	Market closer
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Chicago White Sox @ 98%	Chicago White Sox	0.000	0.000	Market closer
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Chicago White Sox @ 98%	Chicago White Sox	0.000	0.000	Market closer
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Chicago White Sox @ 98%	Chicago White Sox	0.000	0.000	Market closer
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Chicago White Sox @ 98%	Chicago White Sox	0.000	0.000	Market closer
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Chicago White Sox @ 98%	Chicago White Sox	0.000	0.000	Market closer

Model variants — the self-correction experiment

Model	Forecasts	Brier	Market Brier	Beats market	Accuracy
blend-mkt50-v1	10577	0.129	0.121	51%	80%
blend-mkt75-v1	9895	0.123	0.121	51%	82%
blend-mkt90-v1	9736	0.121	0.120	50%	83%
gemini-2.5-flash	6442	0.182	0.131	54%	74%
gemini-2.5-flash-cal2	3874	0.136	0.125	45%	79%
gemini-3.7-flash	6391	0.134	0.126	50%	81%
gemini-3.7-flash-cal2	6380	0.126	0.126	49%	82%

blend-mkt50-v1 = the raw AI probability blended 50/50 with the market price at forecast time — a deterministic self-correction deployed after the calibration analysis showed mid-range overconfidence. If the blend's Brier beats the market's, the AI adds information beyond price.

Calibration — when the AI says X%, how often does it happen?

AI confidence	Forecasts	Realized	AI Brier	Market Brier
0-10%	8	100%	0.941	0.000
20-30%	1	100%	0.640	0.922
50-60%	419	57%	0.252	0.173
60-70%	1078	44%	0.265	0.212
70-80%	1225	59%	0.232	0.189
80-90%	981	60%	0.231	0.218
90-100%	2730	86%	0.097	0.036

Red = overconfident (events happened less often than the AI's stated probability).

AI vs market, by market line

Market line (winner's price at forecast time)	Forecasts	AI Brier	Market Brier	AI edge
mkt 95%+	1691	0.082	0.001	-0.081
mkt 80-95%	1632	0.079	0.016	-0.062
mkt 60-80%	1222	0.114	0.094	-0.020
mkt 40-60%	1084	0.276	0.230	-0.046
mkt <40% (upset)	813	0.578	0.559	-0.019

Methodology

Hourly AI forecasts are stored with the contemporaneous market price (append-only receipts). At resolution every receipt is scored: Brier = (1 - probability assigned to the eventual winner)^2, for both the AI and the market price captured at the same timestamp. Lower is better. Brier is computed only for 2-outcome markets; a winner requires one outcome priced >=0.95 at resolution. No receipt is dropped silently.

Unscorable receipts: 38323 ({'no_probability': 1, 'market_expired_unresolved': 38239, 'ambiguous_resolution': 15, 'unmatched_outcome_text': 68}) — counted, never silently dropped.

Raw JSON: /api/v1/scoreboard · Updated 2026-09-24T23:30:02.695903+00:00 · Market-implied odds, not financial advice.